Critics of education choice claim that introducing and expanding choice programs will lead to a massive exodus of students that will dismantle public-school systems by “defunding” them. For instance, one critic claims that vouchers “could dramatically destabilize public-school systems and communities.” Legislators in states such as Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia claimed that school-choice bills introduced in their states would destroy public schools.
Such overwrought claims are hard to square with our work and many other analyses of education-choice programs, including a recent study that showed students participating in choice programs, including programs that have been around for multiple decades, represent just 2 percent of all publicly funded students in the states that operate these programs.
As part of the publication The ABCs of School Choice, we report participation rates, or “take-up rates,” by program for each school year.
This is how we calculate that figure:
Trends matter too, though. Existing research doesn’t tell us about how programs might evolve or the extent to which participation increases or decreases over time. The rate in the third year that a program operates is probably going to be different than the rate in the same program’s twenty-third year. Take-up rates over time is what we are interested in understanding.
We decided to look at programs that were introduced in 2010 or later and that were in operation for at least 5 years. Our sample includes 27 private-education-choice programs in 19 states. These programs consist of four education savings accounts programs, 13 voucher programs, and 10 tax-credit scholarship programs. Thirteen of these programs exclusively serve students with special needs. All programs in the sample are statewide except one: Wisconsin’s Racine Parental Choice, which is open to students who reside in the Racine Unified School District.
Our estimates reflect eligibility requirements in place for each program during a given year. We generate these estimates at both the program and state levels. One challenge with generating state-level estimates is that, in states with multiple programs, eligibility may overlap, which could lead to double-counting. We therefore avoid double-counting by subtracting out regions of overlap. There are also some program-specific pathways that we do not account for given data limitations, such as students from military families. Additionally, for states with special-needs programs that have income limits, we assume that the household income distribution for special-needs students is the same as the income distribution for all households with children at the state level.
Even Over the Long Term, Take-Up Rates Remain Low
We found that, even after a decade of a program’s existence, take-up rates remained low (see Table 1). An exception was Wisconsin’s Racine Parental Choice Program, which has the highest take-up rate in the sample for each year in operation: 2.95 percent in the program’s first year and 37.15 percent in the program’s tenth year. Although the Racine program may seem like a total outlier, this program is actually distinct from the others included in this analysis. It operates within a large urban school district, whereas the other programs operate on a statewide basis. Racine may also have a high take-up rate because Wisconsin has had the presence of a choice program since 1990 with the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program. Thus, it’s likely that many families in Racine were already aware of the Racine program when it started, due to previous familiarity with the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program.
Among statewide choice programs, the Maryland BOOST program experienced the highest take-up in its first year, with 1.25 percent of eligible students in Maryland participating in the program. Among programs in their tenth year, the Indiana Choice Scholarship Program had the highest take-up rate, 6.95 percent. In the initial year, all but two programs had take-up rates well below 1 percent. By the fifth year, take-up rates for 21 of the 27 programs were below 2 percent and remained below that level through their ninth year. It appears that the exodus of students from states’ public school systems did not materialize.
Even After 10 Years, Programs with High Take-Up Rates Are Exceptions (Table 1)
For most programs, take-up rates remain below 2 percent for the better part of a decade.
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| Program Name | Launch Year | Program Type | State | Number of years in operation | Eligibile to Special Needs Students Only | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
| Alabama Education Scholarship Program* | 2013 | Tax Credit | AL | 9 | N | 0.01% | 1.81% | 0.26% | 1.28% | 1.39% | 1.28% | 1.47% | 1.55% | 1.11% | n/a |
| Arkansas Succeed Scholarship Program for Students with Disabilities | 2016 | Voucher | AR | 5 | Y | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.33% | 0.52% | 0.61% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Arizona Empowerment Scholarship Accounts | 2011 | ESA | AZ | 10 | Y | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.59% | 1.02% | 1.89% | 2.62% | 3.62% | 4.54% | 7.33% | 6.58% |
| Arizona “Switcher” | 2012 | Tax Credit | AZ | 8 | N | 0.43% | 1.29% | 1.55% | 1.99% | 2.13% | 2.37% | 2.54% | 2.38% | n/a | n/a |
| Florida Gardiner ESA | 2014 | ESA | FL | 7 | Y | 0.43% | 1.30% | 2.11% | 2.64% | 3.01% | 3.41% | 4.58% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Indiana School Scholarship Tax Credit | 2010 | Tax Credit | IN | 12 | N | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.55% | 0.86% | 2.03% | 1.65% | 1.71% | 1.76% | 1.89% | 2.02% |
| Indiana Choice Scholarship | 2011 | Voucher | IN | 10 | N | 0.74% | 1.69% | 3.64% | 5.27% | 5.93% | 6.45% | 6.87% | 7.23% | 7.25% | 6.95% |
| Kansas Low Income | 2015 | Tax Credit | KS | 7 | N | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.25% | 0.83% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Louisiana School Choice Program for Certain Students with Exceptionalities | 2011 | Voucher | LA | 9 | Y | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.30% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.40% | 0.47% | 0.50% | 0.51% | n/a |
| Maryland BOOST | 2016 | Voucher | MD | 5 | N | 1.25% | 1.40% | 1.71% | 1.64% | 1.35% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Mississippi Dyslexia Therapy Scholarship for Students with Dyslexia Program | 2012 | Voucher | MS | 9 | Y | 0.23% | 0.52% | 0.83% | 1.12% | 1.00% | 1.22% | 1.42% | 1.45% | 1.16% | n/a |
| Mississippi Equal Opportunity for Students with Special Needs Program | 2015 | ESA | MS | 6 | Y | 0.33% | 0.67% | 0.71% | 0.69% | 1.08% | 0.96% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| North Carolina Opportuniy Scholarship | 2014 | Voucher | NC | 7 | N | 0.23% | 0.54% | 0.85% | 1.15% | 1.54% | 1.92% | 2.56% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| North Carolina Special Education Scholarship Grants for Children with Disabilities | 2014 | Voucher | NC | 8 | Y | 0.14% | 0.31% | 0.40% | 0.57% | 0.63% | 0.88% | 0.81% | 0.78% | n/a | n/a |
| New Hampshire Education Tax Credit Program | 2013 | Tax Credit | NH | 9 | N | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.57% | 0.70% | 0.79% | 1.25% | 1.38% | n/a |
| Nevada Educational Choice | 2015 | Tax Credit | NV | 6 | N | 0.21% | 0.44% | 0.84% | 0.94% | 0.60% | 0.43% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Ohio Jon Peterson Special Needs Scholarship Program | 2012 | Voucher | OH | 9 | Y | 0.52% | 1.02% | 1.34% | 1.66% | 1.88% | 2.11% | 2.37% | 2.49% | 2.79% | n/a |
| Ohio Income Scholarship | 2013 | Voucher | OH | 8 | N | 0.09% | 0.29% | 0.48% | 0.66% | 1.43% | 1.82% | 2.05% | 2.87% | n/a | n/a |
| Oklahoma Lindsey Nicole Henry Scholarships for Students with Disabilities | 2010 | Voucher | OK | 11 | Y | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.34% | 0.42% | 0.62% | 0.64% | 0.72% | 0.81% |
| Oklahoma Equal Opportunity Education Scholarships | 2013 | Tax Credit | OK | 9 | N | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.16% | 0.28% | 0.45% | 0.46% | 0.19% | 0.15% | n/a |
| South Carolina Educational Credit for Exceptional Needs Children Fund | 2014 | Tax Credit | SC | 7 | Y | 0.41% | 1.16% | 2.06% | 1.88% | 2.22% | 2.15% | 1.25% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| South Dakota Partners in Education Tax Credit Program | 2016 | Tax Credit | SD | 5 | N | 0.52% | 0.88% | 0.90% | 1.37% | 1.52% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Tennessee Individualized Education Account Program | 2017 | ESA | TN | 5 | Y | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.23% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Virginia Education Improvement Scholarships Tax Credits Program | 2013 | Tax Credit | VA | 9 | Y | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.45% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.79% | 0.75% | 0.79% | n/a |
| Wisconsin Racine Parental Choice | 2011 | Voucher | WI | 10 | N | 2.95% | 6.46% | 15.57% | 19.42% | 23.43% | 27.67% | 32.85% | 32.74% | 35.53% | 37.15% |
| Wisconsin Parental Choice Program (Statewide) | 2013 | Voucher | WI | 8 | N | 0.32% | 0.66% | 1.74% | 2.20% | 1.16% | 1.91% | 2.57% | 3.22% | n/a | n/a |
| Wisconsin Special Needs Scholarship Program | 2016 | Voucher | WI | 5 | Y | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.59% | 0.87% | 1.18% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
*Starting January 1, 2015 the Alabama Department of Revenue changed its reporting requirements from a calendar year basis to a fiscal year basis. Thus, year 3 data in the analysis for Alabama’s program is based on six months. Data for subsequent years are based on fiscal years ending June 30.
Note: A program’s first year in operation is the first year that we observe students participating in the program. We also examine take-up rates by program type (ESA, voucher, and tax-credit scholarship programs), programs that exclusively serve special-needs populations, and programs that serve non-special-needs populations. The sample includes all programs that launched in 2010 or later and have been in operation for at least five years through 2021.
As seven states in the analysis have more than one program, we also estimated overall take-up rates for each state (see Table 2). These, too, remained low.
On a State-by-State Basis, Take-Up Rates Are Low (Table 2)
For all but one state, the take-up rate in a program’s initial year of operation was below 1 percent.
| State | State abbrev | Number of programs | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| Alabama* | AL | 1 | 0.01% | 1.81% | 0.26% | 1.28% | 1.39% |
| Arizona | AZ | 2 | 0.44% | 1.32% | 1.63% | 2.12% | 2.38% |
| Arkansas | AR | 1 | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.33% | 0.52% | 0.61% |
| Florida | FL | 1 | 0.43% | 1.30% | 2.11% | 2.64% | 3.01% |
| Indiana | IN | 2 | 0.85% | 1.91% | 4.32% | 6.26% | 8.04% |
| Kansas | KS | 1 | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.15% |
| Louisiana | LA | 1 | 0.22% | 0.24% | 0.30% | 0.39% | 0.35% |
| Maryland | MD | 1 | 1.25% | 1.40% | 1.71% | 1.64% | 1.35% |
| Mississippi | MS | 2 | 0.31% | 0.64% | 0.74% | 0.78% | 1.06% |
| Nevada | NV | 1 | 0.21% | 0.44% | 0.84% | 0.94% | 0.60% |
| New Hampshire | NH | 1 | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.57% |
| North Carolina | NC | 2 | 0.23% | 0.54% | 0.84% | 1.01% | 1.32% |
| Ohio | OH | 2 | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.63% | 0.84% | 1.56% |
| Oklahoma | OK | 2 | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.18% | 0.29% |
| South Carolina | SC | 1 | 0.41% | 1.16% | 2.06% | 1.88% | 2.22% |
| South Dakota | SD | 1 | 0.52% | 0.88% | 0.90% | 1.37% | 1.52% |
| Tennessee | TN | 1 | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.23% |
| Virginia | VA | 1 | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.45% | 0.55% |
| Wisconsin | WI | 3 | 0.38% | 0.83% | 1.62% | 2.16% | 1.55% |
*Starting January 1, 2015 the Alabama Department of Revenue changed its reporting requirements from a calendar year basis to a fiscal year basis. Thus, year 3 data in the analysis for Alabama’s program is based on six months. Data for subsequent years are based on fiscal years ending June 30.
Note: After Year 5, the sample was reduced from prior years. For example, of programs that started in 2010 or later, Wisconsin had three programs that were operating during their fifth year. In year 6, there were two programs operating. In year 9, there was one program operating.
For all but one state, take-up rates for programs in their initial year in operation, including those in states with multiple programs, were below 1 percent, with the average being 0.30 percent. Maryland had the highest take-up rate at 1.25 percent, followed by Indiana at 0.85 percent. Because Maryland is a relatively small state, it may have been easier to disseminate information about the program to eligible families compared to other states.
Some programs are more popular than others, however (see Table 3). The overall take-up rate for all programs in the initial year was 0.26 percent. By the third year, the overall rate reached 1 percent, and by the fifth year, the overall take-up rate increased to just 1.74 percent. Take-up rates for ESA programs are slightly higher than rates for voucher and tax-credit scholarship programs over all years of operation.
Education Savings Accounts Are Somewhat More Popular Than Other Programs (Table 3)
But after five years, the average take-up rate for all programs is less than 2 percent.
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| All programs | 0.26% | 0.68% | 1.02% | 1.40% | 1.74% |
| ESA | 0.29% | 0.82% | 1.34% | 1.72% | 2.16% |
| Tax Credit | 0.18% | 0.66% | 0.75% | 1.06% | 1.32% |
| Voucher | 0.33% | 0.68% | 1.23% | 1.69% | 2.11% |
Note: The sample includes four education savings account programs, 13 voucher programs, and 10 tax-credit scholarship programs.
Tax-credit scholarship programs tend to have lower take-up rates, likely due to funding caps that are more prevalent with these kinds of programs. By the fifth year in operation, take-up rates for education savings account and voucher programs were just over 2 percent, while take up for tax-credit scholarship programs was 1.32 percent.
Take-up rates for non-special-needs programs are higher across the board compared to programs that exclusively serve students with special needs (see Tables 4 and 5). Participation in both types of programs is comparably low in their initial year (0.2 to 0.3 percent). By their fifth year, the overall take-up rate was 1.94 percent for non-special-needs programs, and 1.3 percent for special-needs programs.
Programs for Students with Special Needs Have Slightly Lower Take-Up Rates
(Tables 4 and 5)
All take-up rates are still lower than 3 percent.
Table 4: Non-special needs programs
| Program type | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| All programs | 0.28% | 0.75% | 1.10% | 1.54% | 1.94% |
| ESA | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Tax Credit | 0.20% | 0.77% | 0.82% | 1.17% | 1.45% |
| Voucher | 0.36% | 0.74% | 1.40% | 1.94% | 2.51% |
Table 5: Special needs programs
| Program type | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
| All programs | 0.20% | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.07% | 1.30% |
| ESA | 0.29% | 0.82% | 1.34% | 1.72% | 2.16% |
| Tax Credit | 0.07% | 0.25% | 0.50% | 0.65% | 0.79% |
| Voucher | 0.26% | 0.48% | 0.68% | 0.89% | 1.01% |
Note: All ESA programs in the sample are open to special-needs students only.
Among special-needs programs, tax-credit scholarship programs have a lower take-up rate than voucher and education savings account programs. ESAs have higher take-up rates over each year in operation than other program types. By the fifth year, ESA programs have take-up rates that are more than double those for voucher and tax-credit scholarship programs.
Why Are Take-Up Rates So Low?
Although this descriptive analysis does not tell us why we observe low take-up rates for most programs, there are a few plausible explanations.
- A large portion of families are unaware of school choice programs. Survey work indicates that, when parents were asked why their children did not participate in their state’s education choice programs, 36 to 53 percent of parents with children in public schools in Arizona, Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio indicated that they were unaware of them. In Indiana, program awareness was lowest among parents with children in district schools and significantly lower among rural district parents than urban district parents.
- Program design includes low funding levels and limits placed on participation. On average, choice programs receive just one third of the funding that private-school systems receive. Thus, eligible families who desire other options may not be able to access alternative settings at current choice-program funding levels. Moreover, some programs limit participation by capping program enrollment, and most tax-credit scholarship programs cap tax-credit disbursements, which can limit program participation.
- Families are satisfied with existing options and do not desire change. Public opinion polling indicates that about half of parents would prefer options outside the public-school system if financial costs or transportation were not factors in their decisions. A large disconnect remains between what families want for their children’s education and what they actually receive. We doubt, however, that this fully explains the low take-up rates we observe.
Contrary to dire predictions and claims from opponents about choice causing an exodus from public-school systems, take-up in private-education choice programs overall does not have a negative effect on public-school systems or their funding. In fact, research suggests that greater take-up in choice programs leads to better student outcomes for the vast majority of students choosing to remain in public schools. Looking at these facts, it seems clear that the claims of exodus and harm caused by choice programs are greatly exaggerated.
Marty Lueken is director of the Fiscal Research and Education Center at EdChoice. Michael Castro is a research assistant at EdChoice.
The post Tackling the “Exodus” Claim appeared first on Education Next.
By: Martin Lueken
Title: Tackling the “Exodus” Claim
Sourced From: www.educationnext.org/tackling-the-exodus-claim-reality-take-up-rates-private-education-choice-programs/
Published Date: Thu, 26 May 2022 09:00:47 +0000
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